Solving poverty by helping the poor, not eliminating their children

From CBCP for Life: 

If RH pushers want to help the poor, spend P3.7 billion on jobs creation, skills training – speaker

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, Dec. 8, 2012—Some 1,500 youth, teachers and residents of the municipality of President Manuel A. Roxas in Zamboanga del Norte joined forces and gathered for the “Walk for Life and Anti-RH Bill Symposium,” marching around the municipality then taking part in a symposium in which economics teacher and law student Jan Louenn Lumanta spoke about the reality of the reproductive health (RH) bill and the country’s real needs.

RH Bill not for the poor

The guest speaker from the Dipolog diocese pointed out that referring to the measure as pro-poor is a misnomer.

Some secular reasons for opposing the RH bill

UPDATED: Q&A on Economic and Demographic Aspects of the RH Bill

The following is the updated version as of September 8, 2012. I had previously uploaded the version of September 8, 2011. Many thanks to Dr. Roberto De Vera for the updated text. Q & A on Economic and Demographic Aspects of the Reproductive Health Bill

RH bill: Closing the demographic window of opportunity?

The following was published by Business World Online on July 7, 2012 under the rubric "Popular Economics":

A ‘demographic window’ of opportunity

Felipe Salvosa II

IS A LARGE population a boon or a bane?

The debate has been going on for centuries. In the Philippines, it flares up whenever lawmakers take up bills proposing to control population growth.

In recent months, however, the government’s top economic managers — echoed by a number of private-sector analysts — have cited the advantages of the country’s demographic profile, changing the tone of the population debate.

Last March, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. told the Philippine Investment Forum that the Philippines would be the last major economy in Asia to enter the “demographic sweet spot,” and this would happen by 2015. In May, Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima said a huge working population was expected to accelerate economic growth.

Wall Street Journal op-ed slams RH Bill!

THIS POST, ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON JULY 25, WILL STAY ON TOP UNTIL AUGUST 1, 2012. NEWER POSTS BELOW!

(Update 7/28/12: the entire article has been published by the website of the Office of the President of the Philippines.)

On July 24, 2012 the Wall Street Journal published an article on economic reform in the Philippines with the title Keeping the Philippine Dream Alive. This article is currently available only to subscribers. However, I've been able to read the whole article and, incredibly, it contains the following put-down of the RH bill (emphases mine):

Mr. Aquino still hasn't found a way to overcome political opposition to more mining investments, a problem given the contribution the country's mineral wealth could make to growth if it could be extracted. And his promotion of a "reproductive health" bill is jarring because it would put the Philippines in danger of following China's path into middle-income development followed by a demographic trap of too few workers. The Philippines doesn't have too many people, it has too few pro-growth policies.

As the pro-life side has been saying all along, the problem is not the number of people, but economic and social policies. 

Hunger isn't eliminated by eliminating the hungry

The sweet spot

Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer (mirabile visu!)

THINKING GLOBAL

The advantages of a large and growing population

By: Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

June 15th, 2012

Thanks to Governor Amando Tetangco of the Central Bank, the man in the street has now been enlightened about a phrase that used to be limited to specialists in demographics and economic development. Referring to a “sweet spot” that the Philippine population is entering in the next 10 to 20 years, he expressed optimism about the prospects of higher growth for the Philippine economy because of the advantages of a young population both from the standpoints of abundant manpower supply and a large domestic market for goods and services. This sweet spot is made possible by what demographers call the demographic dividend, which is the benefit conferred on a country by a young labor force that is still growing faster than the retired force and the dependent children (those below 15 years of age).  This phrase was coined by Harvard demographer David Bloom. It was first applied to the favorable circumstances faced by such countries as Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea in the second half of the last century when these “tiger economies” grew at record levels of 10 to 12 percent for more than 20 years, catapulting their respective economies to First World status in just one generation.

Who's scared of 92.3 M Filipinos?

The following was published on the website of Business Mirror on April 17, 2012:

Debunking the population bogey  

Mercedes B. Suleik 

“92.3 MILLION AND GROWING!” screamed the headline of one broadsheet. This was followed by the sub-headline “100 million Filipinos by 2015” which would simply scare the heebie-jeebies out of anyone. And of course, seized upon by the proponents of the RH Bill, as a great way of pushing their agenda forward—how are all those mouths going to be fed?

Once again one of oldest myths of economic literature which continue to belabour the consequences of population on the pace and process of economic growth is being rehashed. The Malthusian proposition of 1798 has become some kind of dogma to population junkies. Proponents of this doctrine have sanitized it to look like an innocuous, reasonable proposal to promote economic development. Poor countries, let’s be honest and say, the Philippines, has been the target of this campaign to “manage population” as a national policy.

Expanded elaborations of the Malthusian theme raised the bogey of difficulties of feeding expanding populations and of pressures on capital formation – assessments we might say were mostly concerned with short-run, direct impacts and downplayed indirect and longer-run effects that would likely occur due to price responses, institutional changes, and certainly technological innovations that poor old Malthus never imagined would ever come to pass. As a matter of fact, well-known economist Simon Kuznets, basing his conclusion on longer-run assessments, found that based on simple correlations, a net negative impact of population growth on per capita output was not obvious in the data. Indeed, a number of findings highlighting both the productivity of human capital and the importance of technical change put into question the highly pessimistic Malthusian underpinnings of the population bomb theories.

Now comes an even more positive window of opportunity in the development of society and a nation—studies that show a demographic dividend that countries such as our may exploit, by laying down appropriate policies that would make possible faster rates of economic growth and human development as fertility rates decline.

In the case of the Philippines, its population has increased at the average rate of 1.9 percent annually for the period 2000-2010 (in contrast to the lie that has been fed to our legislators and RH advocates – 1.9 percent versus the touted 2.3 percent, happily endorsed by USAID and UN-MDG people who have dangled the carrot of development with the stick of birth control—even non-statisticians can see the huge difference!

What is this demographic dividend? Simply stated, the demographic dividend occurs when a falling birth rate changes the age distribution so that fewer investments are needed to meet the needs of the youngest age groups and resources are released for investment in economic development and family welfare. A falling birth rate makes for a smaller population at young, dependent ages and for relatively more people in the adult age groups – who comprise the productive labor force. It improves the ratio of productive workers to child dependents in the population, allowing for faster economic growth and fewer burdens on families.

It may be mentioned that the effect of this drop in fertility rates is not immediate. There is a lag that produces a generational population bulge that for a time exerts a burden on society and increases the dependency ratio. Eventually this dependent group will reach the productive labor force, and the dependency ratio will decline dramatically, leading to the so-called demographic dividend. This is the time when effective policies can facilitate more rapid economic growth, putting less strain on families. During the course of the demographic dividend, four mechanisms that will benefit society may be delivered through increased labor supply; increase in savings; human capital; and increased domestic demand.

Indeed, no less than BSP Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr. stated that the country’s large population of young workers with purchasing power provides the economy with the demographic dividends that are good for consumption and investments. This period in an economy’s history where more people or a prominent portion of the population is of working age results in greater purchasing power which can drive consumption, savings, and investment. He said that our average age is 22.2 years, with nearly half a million graduates entering the labor force each year, providing companies with a large pool of manpower to fill their requirements. By 2015, Tetangco said, we will reach that demographic sweet spot.

Our country should take advantage of the opportunity to enhance the key features of the economic life cycle. The productivity of young people depends not just on the availability of jobs but on their capacity to take up employment opportunities, i.e., education. As an aside, it has also been mentioned that there is a “second demographic dividend” which relates to a large proportion of older working age people who face longer periods of retirement, accumulate assets, and contribute to the economy’s consumption, savings, and investment. May I appeal to the one-track minded anti-life advocates to sit up straight and think through the benefits of the demographic dividend that we have been blessed with – and by the way, this dividend period, according to Wikipedia, is neither automatic or permanent and would last approximately five decades. So we better not muff it!

Is our population's growth really the root cause of our economic problems?

From the prestigious American journal National Review:

Population Growth in the Philippines: Problem or Potential?

By Christopher White

February 8, 2011

In one week, a population-control bill in the Philippines is likely to be passed that supports coercive government-funded family-planning initiatives for demographically targeted populations. If passed, one year or even one generation from now, the root problems that this bill seeks to address will still exist. In fact, they’re likely to be exaggerated.

“The Responsible Parenthood, Reproductive Health and Population and Development Act of 2011,” as this bill is officially titled, is in essence an attempt to curb the growing population of the Philippines through a variety of measures — most notably, a new sexual-education program, greater access and distribution of contraceptives, and eventually, government-funded abortion. This past week the bill made its way out of a plenary session and is now on the fast track to becoming law.

At present, the population of the Philippines is estimated to be over 92 million making it the world’s twelfth most populous country. Fertile women in the Philippines have, on average, 3.1 babies each — a stark contrast to neighboring Singapore, which had an all-time low average of 1.16 in 2010. Given its size and increasing growth, the needs of the Philippines are vast — education, health care, and better sanitation to name a few. But is population growth really the root cause of these problems and needs? History seems to indicate otherwise.

Philippine Population: What's the issue?

The following introduction is adapted from Facebook comments by Dr. Quesada's son, Leo:

The following article by Dr. Ramon Quesada provides empirical data from the time of the Marcos administration to the present regarding population growth rate vis-a-vis population control policies and efforts. More importantly, it provides a cross-sectional analysis throughout the provinces in the Philippines with regard population and per capita income. The article is written in simple terms, easily accessible to the layman.

Ramon Quesada also has a Masters Degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Connecticut. He graduated from the Ateneo de Manila University with a degree in AB Economics after shortly turning 18 years old (!). He was the former Executive Director of the Strategic Business Economics Program, and is well-traveled internationally (including Nigeria and Pyongyang, N.Korea) and locally. Under that program, he would give mid-year and year-end economic briefings to numerous company officers and CEO's, bank officers, etc.

The Philippines: the best country for long-term economic growth because of its population

From a recent report by CNBC on the top ten countries for long-term economic growth (the Philippines tops the list):

The Philippines has one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia. The population is set to jump by almost 70 percent over the next 40 years, and HSBC believes the combination of its powerful demographics and strong fundamentals will drive the economy to become the world’s 16th largest by 2050. That would mark a jump of 27 places from its current ranking of 43.

The country is one of the world’s largest exporters of labor, with over 9 million Filipinos working abroad, according to the latest data from the Commission of Filipinos Overseas. In 2010, almost $19 billion was sent back to the Philippines as remittances from Filipinos working abroad.

More recently, the country’s fast-developing business process outsourcing (BPO) industry has helped keep some of the workforce from leaving the country. Already 350,000 Filipinos are estimated to work in call centers, compared with 330,000 Indians, according to the Contact Center Association of the Philippines. The industry is projected to provide more than 1 million jobs within two years.

The economy’s focus on the services sector and domestic consumption, as well as a lower exposure to global financial markets, helped it to escape a recession following the 2008 global financial crisis.

See these articles as well: Why invest in the Philippines? and Inquirer's surprisingly positive editorial on the HSBC report

Why invest in the Philippines?

The answer to that question is very relevant to the topic of this blog...

Emphases mine:

Invest in Philippines, the ‘Dark Horse’ of Asia: Expert

Published: Thursday, 17 Nov 2011 

By: CNBC.com

As far as emerging markets go, the Philippines is seldom the choice investment destination, but one analyst says the Southeast Asian nation could well become the “dark horse” of the region, thanks to its favorable demographics and sound economic fundamentals.

The Philippine’s “very robust and young population" presents a ready pool of talent, says Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Bank Julius Baer. He expects the country’s population of 93 million, around half of whom are below 20 years old, to more than double to 190 million by 2040.

With fertility rates declining in the West and in Asian countries like Japan, Korea and China, the Philippines will increasingly become an important source of immigrant labor, he added.

"And the interesting thing is 80 percent of them speak English," Matthews said. "Most people who speak English in third world countries, they don't want to go overseas to work in sort of manual labor. But the Filipinos have no problem doing it...and they are making three times as much as they are making back at home, and they are sending it back home."

Population collapse equals economic collapse

From Philippine Daily Inquirer:

Population collapse equals economic collapse
By: Amado de Jesus (columnist, Green Architrends)
December 10, 2011

It is unclear how the country will reach 126 million population in 2030.

The average Filipina of reproductive age with 6 children 35 years ago, has only 3 children today because of lifestyle change. Half of all women in the country today use artificial contraceptives. Family size has gone down from our grandparents’ time to ours. At the present rate, the Philippines will be at 2.1 total fertility rate or zero population growth by 2025.

Exactly 51 countries or one-third of all countries now have below replacement level total fertility rate, or TFR. China with 1.6 billion and India with 1.3 billion population attribute their new prosperity to their huge population.

The Moscow Demographic Summit of June 2011 declared that nearly half of all mankind today are living in countries where the birth rate is no longer able to replace the older generation, and that depopulation is the world’s next irreversible crisis.

Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore representatives at the Asean Future Cities Conference talked about shrinking, graying cities.

Poor people

The real problem concerning the number of poor people in the Philippines is that out of every P10 that the government spends, at least P3 go to corruption. Imagine if that money went to education, infrastructure and healthcare.

Two articles that touch on the relation between the Philippines' population growth and its economic future

From Bernardo Villegas' January 12, 2012 column "What to expect in 2012":

I expect at least a 6% growth of GDP for the whole of 2012. Thanks to our not being too export dependent, we are partly insulated from the stagnation that the world economy will experience in 2012. Exports account for a little over 30% of our GDP in contrast with close to 200% in such tiger economies as Singapore and Hong Kong. 

These rich countries will see their GDP suffering from either a decline or a significant slowdown. Not the Philippines nor Indonesia, nor China nor India. They can thank their large populations which guarantee a large domestic market for their local businesses. Although I do not accept at face value the prediction by some population commission officials that the Philippine population will reach 97 million by the end of 2012 (it will be closer to 95 million), I welcome the talk of a large population. A large population attracts investors, both domestic and foreign, because of the strong domestic market they see. 

Even the lowest-income households (the so-called D and E markets) can offer attractive markets for the savvy business man who knows how to mine the "bottom of the pyramid." Ask Procter and Gamble, Unilever, Jollibee, McDonald's, Alaska Milk Corporation, Lucky Me, Nestle, etc. They are creative enough to design products that can be sold to the poorest of the poor. 

 ***

Just to humor a geomancer I overheard in a New Year's television program, let me agree with his "prediction" that the "water" attached to the Dragon symbolizes a flood of investments and consumption expenditures in the Philippines for 2012. This "flood" is made possible by the significant increase in domestic savings over the last four to five years and the still healthy demographic profile of the country in which the young still outnumber significantly the senior citizens. To the RH Bill proponent, let me repeat: It's the large population, stupid! 

What about "inclusive growth"? Will the growth lead to alleviating mass poverty? I am optimistic because I see the efforts of Vice President Binay complementing the excellent work of the economic team in controlling inflation and mobilizing funds for investments with pro-poor projects. I see the Vice President trying to replicate at the national level what he did when he was Mayor of Makati in ensuring that growth in one of the richest cities in the country would trickle down to the poor in terms of quality education in the public schools, health care, housing and welfare for the senior citizens. 

It was a very wise move of the President to assign the Vice President to two of the most effective channels to uplift the conditions of the masses: social housing and OFW welfare. Another source of optimism is the work I see being done at the Department of Public Works and Highways whose leadership is addressing the decades-old problem of inadequate rural and agricultural infrastructures. 

Next to providing their children with access to quality public education, the greatest service we can give to the poor, who are mostly in the rural areas, is to endow them with the infrastructures they need to make their small farms productive and to bring their produce to the markets cost effectively. 

We may not achieve our targets for the Millennium Development Goals by 2015, but we are headed towards the right direction. We are applying emergency measures to alleviate the economic sufferings of the poorest of the poor through the Conditional Cash Transfer program. 

But even more important for the medium-term reduction of poverty, we are creating the right environment for both public and private investments in the countryside, the only sustainable way of creating employment opportunities and thereby reducing mass poverty.

The following article has been doing the rounds among Filipino Facebook accounts:

PH could have 16th biggest economy in the world by 2050 - HSBC

12-Jan-12, Joseph Villanueva, InterAksyon.com 

MANILA, Philippines - HSBC said the Philippine economy may become the 16th largest in the world by 2050, dwarfing neighbors Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. 

The British banking giant said the Philippines could even outgrow oil-producing Saudi Arabia - host to the biggest concentration of overseas Filipino workers - or the Netherlands, which is home to a number of multinational companies. 

The forecast is contained in a study projecting the size of a hundred economies 40 years hence. HSBC expanded the report from the original 30-country review published in 2011. 

HSBC said the Philippine economy would likely expand 15 times from $112 billion today to $1.69 trillion in 2050. The forecast sends the Philippines 27 notches above its current ranking of 47 in the original group of 50 economies reviewed. 

“Our ranking is based on an economy’s current level of development and the factors that will determine whether it has the potential to catch up with more developed nations. These fundamentals include current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change, allowing us to project forward the gross domestic product (GDP) forward,” HSBC said. 

It said the Philippines' likely improvement would owe more to an expanding population than to any improvement in individual wealth. 

The Philippines joins a group of 26 countries that are expected to register the fastest growth through 2050 at five percent a year on average. 

Countries in this group “share a very low level of development but have made great progress in improving fundamentals. As they open themselves to the technology available elsewhere, they should enjoy many years of ‘copy and paste’ growth ahead,” HSBC said. 

Other members of the group are China, India, Egypt, Malaysia, Peru, Bangladesh, Algeria, Ukraine, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Tanzania and Kazakhstan, among others. 

A second group of countries whose growth would average from three to five percent includes Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and New Zealand. 

Cellar-dwellers include developed economies such as the US, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Italy, South Korea, Spain, Autralia, the Netherlands, Poland, Switzerland, South Africa, Austria, Sweden, Belgium, Singapore, Israel, Ireland, the United Arab Emirates, Norway, Portugal, Finland, Denmark, Cuba, Qatar, Uruguay, Luxemburg and Slovenia.

The Philippines and the realiites of depopulation

From the Philippine Daily Inquirer:

THE RH BILL

Why an aging population is not good for economy

By: Ma. Esther Salcedo - Posadas

Philippine Daily Inquirer

Saturday, November 19th, 2011

Imagine this scenario: The only child of two aging and sickly parents faces deep pressure to provide for all their needs since there are no siblings to help carry the burden.

The same thing happens in an aging economy where few workers support a bigger number of dependent retirees.

Demographers call it an inverted pyramid. It’s an economy that has declining population growth, where there are more old people than younger ones.

It is the situation currently faced by many European nations plus a few Asian examples such as Japan amd Singapore.

This scenario causes a strain on businesses and their workforce because it also means fewer people to join the action, especially as seniors start to retire.

According to one population study posted on a United Nations website: “Fertility in the Philippines has experienced continuous decline from the 1950s to the present.”

From total fertility rates (TFR) of more than six births per woman in the 60s, the TFR has declined to excess of 3.5 births in the mid-nineties. The CIA Factbook estimates more than three births per woman in 2011.

The above data points to the fact that the country is actually already approaching the replacement fertility rate of more than two births that is essential to ensure the survival of the race.

In certain developed economies, births have fallen below the replacement ratio and certain so-called developed nations are now trying to reverse the population trend. If the Philippines will follow their lead, the consequences can also happen here.

An aging economy is a problem for government because it usually means that there are lesser workers earning a living to support or take care of older people.

In a 2004 discussion paper entitled “Australia’s Demographic Challenges,” the Australian Government’s Treasurer released the following information: “In 2002 there were more than five people of working age to support every person aged over 65. By 2042, there will only be 2.5 people of working age supporting each person aged over 65.”

An economy starts to age when there are fewer people capable of replacing those who are getting older, also in consideration of present health trends that have allowed more people to live longer. Usually, there is also reference to people who still have the capacity to work vs those who are retired and are in need of care. Government pensions systems are usually based on worker contributions that are later redeemed upon retirement.

So if there are fewer people and lesser monetary contributions to the fund, it means that there will be a smaller pot to divide when the retired seniors start claiming their pensions. It could lead to fund bankruptcy if the claims are not met.

Demographers calculate what is known as the “replacement fertility rate” to estimate how many daughters it would take to replace the previous generation of women.

A 1998 paper written by John Bongaarts of the Population Council in New York explains, “Currently, replacement fertility equals 2.36 births per woman (bpw) in the developing world. This level exceeds two because children who die before reaching the reproductive ages have to be replaced with additional births, and because the sex ratio at birth slightly exceeds one (typically 1.05 male for every female birth).”

For economies like the Philippines who still have a positive (albeit declining) fertility ratio, it is important to learn from the experience of developed economies with shrinking populations.

A 2007 study entitled “Global Aging: The New New Thing” by Dr. Adele Hayutin of Stanford Center on Longevity projected that by the year 2030-50 both Japan and Italy will have negative working age population growth rates at -16.9 percent and -5.4 percent, respectively. The data suggests that in order to regain more workers, the economy would need to rely on immigration or other corrective measures to encourage more births. While negative growth may be hard to imagine, the frail figure of aging populations already haunts many economies today.

Ed’s note: Currently on Congress’ drawing board is the passage of the RH bill which aims to promote women health care and teach contrapection to students. The pro-RH bill advocates believe that the Philippines is over populated and the growth of babies should be limited. The anti-RH contends on the other hand that the growth of PH population is already declining and what is needed is better education for Filipinos.

DLSU academic and Metrobank official versus the RH bill: "No to condom economics"

From the website of Business World:

Meretricious pursuits

Ildemarc Bautista

The noted economist John Maynard Keynes once said that “practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” One such economist who looms large in today’s policy debates is Thomas Malthus, who advocated limiting population growth by all means necessary to ensure the welfare of the rest of society.

Neo-Malthusians have taken up this policy as well, with the RH bill a prime example of the influence of the man. The problem is that both his views and the framework of the RH bill are, in the end, discriminatory, myopic, scientifically unsound, anachronistic, and patently ill-constructed.

His view is discriminatory because Malthusianism is ultimately biased against the poor; myopic because his vision of society puts Man at the service of wealth and not wealth at the service of Man; scientifically unsound as he fails to recognize that advances in technology can and do readily provide for the needs of an expanding population; anachronistic and ill-constructed because it fails to consider the wealth effect that stabilizes fertility rates.

Thus, the correct framework to use goes the other way -- increase wealth creation and distribution, and fertility rates will be reduced as time and energy get devoted to productive capacity rather than reproductive capacity. This phenomenon is well-documented. It is poverty that drives fertility rates up, and the solution is to address the poverty problem rather than the high fertility rate issue. As countries get rich, fertility rates go down even without government’s having to spend on population programs. Iran is a good example.

Yet here we are, with an RH bill that will require the government to buy and distribute condoms and modern contraceptives, packaging them as a social requirement. This bill thus spouts discredited Malthusian economics favoring the condom lobby, which is pushing for regulatory capture in a classic rent-seeking move to guarantee a revenue stream from contraceptive products. And what better way is there than to have a law that requires not only the government purchase of condoms and contraceptives but also the education of the markets on their use to stimulate higher product consumption, all using taxpayers’ money? In the same way that the tobacco industry did, product marketing will target juveniles via “age-appropriate lessons” to teach our children, their future markets, how to use contraceptive products by law and at our expense. Do we not we see a problem here?

Condoms and non-abortive products are not illegal in the Philippines, and we Catholics respect the rights of those who want to use or produce them. However, it’s another matter to say that we Catholics should subsidize by law what is essentially immoral and wasteful. No, sir, let the producers compete in the market rather than handing them a captive local market on a silver platter, which is what the RH bill will do.

Some will say that there has been market failure especially by the poor to reduce family size, so condoms should be distributed as a government intervention. Well, to a man with a hammer, all problems look like a nail. To people who think that high fertility rates are the problem rather than a symptom, it’s easy to see why condoms are the solution. I agree that there has been market failure, but it’s failure to create more wealth and distribute it better and not a failure by the poor to reduce family size, the latter not being a market issue.

Ergo, rather than an RH bill, the required government intervention is to make laws that expand and tap productive capacity rather than limit reproductive capacity. With rising levels of wealth, fertility rates decline and health levels improve. More jobs, better education, and a real universal health care system, not condom distribution, are what are required to address poverty alleviation.

The condom lobby should not be allowed to extract economic privileges by the hardwiring of condom purchases in our laws, a form of regulatory capture and rent-seeking that distorts the market and diverts government resources to sterile and meretricious pursuits. No, let them compete in the markets and spend on their own marketing. It’s a free country, and they can do it without an RH bill.

No to condom economics. No to the RH bill.

Marc Bautista, CFA, is head of research at Metrobank and teaches in the MS Computational Finance Program of the Ramon V. del Rosario College of Business of De La Salle University. His Web site is marcbautista.webnode.com.

The views expressed above are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official position of De La Salle University, its faculty, and its administrators.

The RH bill is the product of a short-term view

I originally posted this on August 26 after receiving it via a private Facebook group. I pulled this out after being informed that it had not yet been published by Mr. Villegas. This was finally published by Manila Bulletin on August 29, 2011 and I'm now reposting this as well. 

PRESIDENT AQUINO AND THE RH BILL
Bernardo M. Villegas

As a long-time critic of population control measures, I respect the views of President Benigno Aquino III on the RH Bill. He has supported its inclusion into the priority bills recommended by LEDAC because he is sincerely convinced that population control is indispensable to the reduction of mass poverty in the Philippines. He has arrived at this conclusion after consulting with many of the expert economic advisers in and outside his Administration. I know for a fact that the vast majority of them are neo-Malthusians in orientation. They are convinced that rapid population growth is a major reason for the high incidence of poverty in the Philippines. It is difficult to blame the President for listening to their advice.

I will not repeat here the many economic arguments I have used to counter the view that population growth is a major cause of poverty. I have written numerous articles about the very positive dimensions of population growth. In fact, I just came out with a book entitled precisely The Positive Dimensions of Population Growth that is available in all the major bookstores in Manila.

What I want to tell the President here is that he is taking a very short-term view of the problem of what is called in the Philippine Development Plan, 2011-2016 “inclusive growth.” Even assuming, without granting, that population control can help in the important task of eradicating poverty in the Philippines, I would like to point out to the President that he is ignoring the long-term consequences of distributing artificial contraceptives for free to the poor. There is enough hard evidence in other countries that followed the same path of population control which shows that a contraceptive mentality inevitably leads to a significant rise in abortion, divorce, single mothers and mentally unbalanced adolescents.

On the real trends facing the population of the Philippines

The following article was written in 2007 but remains relevant to our times:

Population trends: lessons for RP

By Fr. Gregory D. Gaston, SThD

Philippine Daily Inquirer

First Posted 19:47:00 01/02/2010

REMEMBER the population bomb? The new threat to the planet is not too many people but too few,” Michael Meyer reports on “Birth Dearth” (in Newsweek, Sept. 27, 2004). He continues: “The world’s population will continue to grow – from today’s 6.4 billion to around 9 billion in 2050. But after that, it will go sharply into decline. Indeed, a phenomenon that we’re destined to learn much more about – depopulation – has already begun in a number of countries.”

Advice for the President

From today's Manila Times editorial, Popularity and Trust Ratings:

Another effort that will surely help restore the President’s top-of-the-heap image and win back the 18 percent decline in popularity from his highest ratings a year ago, is for him to make it clear once and for all that he is no longer behind the work to pass the so-called Reproductive Health Bill. 

The RHB does not address any urgent problem. By placing himself in a position opposed to the Roman Catholic Church and to those of the evangelical churches that are also against abortion and contraception (because no contraceptive medicine or devise except the condom has been shown to not have an abortifacient effect), he has only gained a strong enemy. It is largely because of his RHB stand that some bishops have become nasty (they shouldn’t be!) toward him. These bishops still have a large and loyal flock. 

Instead, the President should be seen to be zealously working to mitigate the effects of inflation on the poor and to revive both our comatose industrialization and crippled agriculture.

Population - the ultimate resource

Rise and fall of Japan

By BERNARDO M. VILLEGAS

June 17, 2011, 3:34am

MANILA, Philippines — Like Roger Federer in world tennis, Japan is now No. 3 in the ranking of the most powerful economies in the world. It gave way to China last year for the position of No. 2. The US, still No. 1, may be feeling the heat from China in the same way that Rafa Nadal is being challenged by Novak Djokovic, for the No. 1 position in tennis.

A recent article by Shinji Fukukawa, former vice minister of the Ministry of the International Trade and Industry and president of Dentsu Research Insitute, diagnosed how Japan rose to the top, almost challenging the US for number one position in the last century, and why it is now facing a rather bleak economic future.

Mr. Fukukawa made it crystal clear that population increase was a major factor for the economic progress that Japan attained in the last century: "Economic growth depends on the rates of population increase and technological evolution, among other factors. Technological evolution relies on the capacities of human beings. So its kernel factor is human power."