NOTE TO ALL READERS

Starting September 8, 2012, anonymous comments -- whether for or against the RH bill -- will no longer be permitted on this blog.
Showing posts with label Overpopulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Overpopulation. Show all posts

Monday, December 10, 2012

"It is useless to argue on population control when we cannot even feed our own people."


From Manila Standard:

By Rod Kapunan 

The basic reason I sneer at those hypocrites advocating the passage of the reproductive health bill is not my religious belief. It is my contempt of their waste of time trying to limit our population when they should be concentrating on increasing our food production.  I am pretty sure there would be no debate on the issue because basic logic tells us it is useless to argue on population control when we cannot even feed for (sic) our own people.

We must bear it in mind that we have a sizable number of people suffering from hunger. They are in dire need of employment, not necessarily for them to improve their lives, but just to be assured that by sundown, their families would have something to eat, and  none of their children would go to sleep on an empty stomach.  Such is most poignant because hunger now stalks a number of our people.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

UPDATED: Q&A on Economic and Demographic Aspects of the RH Bill

The following is the updated version as of September 8, 2012. I had previously uploaded the version of September 8, 2011. Many thanks to Dr. Roberto De Vera for the updated text. Q & A on Economic and Demographic Aspects of the Reproductive Health Bill

Thursday, August 2, 2012

RH bill: Closing the demographic window of opportunity?


The following was published by Business World Online on July 7, 2012 under the rubric "Popular Economics":


Felipe Salvosa II

IS A LARGE population a boon or a bane?

The debate has been going on for centuries. In the Philippines, it flares up whenever lawmakers take up bills proposing to control population growth.

In recent months, however, the government’s top economic managers — echoed by a number of private-sector analysts — have cited the advantages of the country’s demographic profile, changing the tone of the population debate.

Last March, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. told the Philippine Investment Forum that the Philippines would be the last major economy in Asia to enter the “demographic sweet spot,” and this would happen by 2015. In May, Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima said a huge working population was expected to accelerate economic growth.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Wall Street Journal op-ed slams RH Bill!


THIS POST, ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON JULY 25, WILL STAY ON TOP UNTIL AUGUST 1, 2012. NEWER POSTS BELOW!

(Update 7/28/12: the entire article has been published by the website of the Office of the President of the Philippines.)

On July 24, 2012 the Wall Street Journal published an article on economic reform in the Philippines with the title Keeping the Philippine Dream Alive. This article is currently available only to subscribers. However, I've been able to read the whole article and, incredibly, it contains the following put-down of the RH bill (emphases mine):

Mr. Aquino still hasn't found a way to overcome political opposition to more mining investments, a problem given the contribution the country's mineral wealth could make to growth if it could be extracted. And his promotion of a "reproductive health" bill is jarring because it would put the Philippines in danger of following China's path into middle-income development followed by a demographic trap of too few workers. The Philippines doesn't have too many people, it has too few pro-growth policies.

As the pro-life side has been saying all along, the problem is not the number of people, but economic and social policies. 

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Will we really continue to overflow with new students? The reality about our birth rate

For more on the Wall Street Journal op-ed referenced here, see this: Wall Street Journal op-ed slams RH bill!

Your bosses, the schoolchildren
By: Antonio Montalvan II
Philippine Daily Inquirer
Monday, July 30th, 2012

“You must also tell it like it is,” President Aquino, in a foul mood, was heard castigating media at the recent anniversary celebration of “TV Patrol,” a prime-time news program. That’s what we think: He must tell it like it is by getting his facts right, especially in a State of the Nation Address.

The shortage of classrooms, desks and textbooks will be over, but “sikapin nating huwag uling magka-backlog dahil sa dami ng estudyante.” This is the nuance of that statement: More students are coming into our schools even as we address the backlog.

What kind of selective data is being whispered into his ears? Reading the litany of statistics on his teleprompter (impressive), the President could not have missed one glaring data from the National Statistics Office (NSO). The multisectoral nationwide Alliance for the Family Foundation Philippines Inc. (ALFI) took note of this discrepancy by comparing it to the government data from the NSO.

The data, easily accessed through the NSO website (www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/datavs.html), tell us that since the year 2000, the number of babies born every year has actually stopped increasing. Moreover, this has even dropped by 2.2 percent to 1.745 million babies born in 2009 as against 1.784 million babies born in 2008.

Two recent Manila Times editorials on the RH bill


26 July 2012 

ADB says, “Asia’s aging population is a development challenge, since caring for the elderly can be costly and economic growth and productivity depend on a labor force regularly replenished with young adult workers.”

That is the serious problem being faced by Western Europe and Russia. 

Japan and Korea, whose pensions and care for the elderly are among the world best, are suffering because they have overwhelmingly succeeded in the population-control programs. They now suffer from what experts call “the empty cradle” phenomenon. 

Japan and Korea may have policies and laws to provide generously for retired workers and the elderly but they are facing the problem of where to get the money for the pensions and the benefits from.

The pension funds, like those of our SSS and the GSIS, need contributions from young workers and employees so that the pensions for the retirees can be paid. But if there are no more millions of young Japanese and Koreans entering the labor force and enrolling in the pension funds how can the pensioners be paid?

Japan is increasingly depending on robots to do the work that used to be done by salaried workers. Robots are getting to be more efficient and competent—sometimes even more so than humans. Robots however do not contribute to the pension fund.

That is why the population control desired by proponents of the so-called Reproductive Health Bill must be recognized as a threat to Philippine development, to the economy and to the common good.

Last April, a World Health Organization official, warned that the Philippines must be ready for older people constituting larger and larger parts of the population.

More money would be needed to care for the aged in our country.

The heart-breaking movie Soylent Green 30 years ago offered a solution. Governments would just give seniors who reach the appropriate age a quiet and happy death. Then, because food would be scarce, their bodies would be processed into edible soylent green.

For a better future than that we must reject the mistake that the Western Powers imposed on mankind—population control through contraception and abortion. Instead, the new world order should favor population replenishment and the florescence of the Culture of Love.

World Health Organization sees the population of people 65 and older outnumbering children younger than five in our Western Pacific Region by 2017. By 2050, says WHO, 65 and older adults will outnumber children under 14.

“The older age group is becoming the ‘new normal’ for the world’s population. Populations are ageing fastest in low and middle-income countries. A transition toward an older society took more than a century in Europe and might take place in less than 25 years in countries like Brazil, China and Thailand,” WHO said.

Contrary to the population control lobbyists’ words, our birth rate has been declining steadily. It is now approaching the replacement fertility rate minimum of more than two births essential to avoid the ageing population disaster the West, Japan, Korea and even China have.

****


28 July 2012 


PROPONENTS of the so-called Reproductive Health Bill are now marshalling their forces to call for a vote on it in both houses of Congress. Their zeal had noticeably been petering out in the weeks before the President delivered his SONA on Monday. But they got a morale boost when they thought they heard him endorse the RHB.

The bill is not as much about reproductive health as about empowering women and giving them the choice to terminate their pregnancy so that they may more freely concentrate on doing what they want without the burdens of the “sickness” they call pregnancy and the sacrificial work of caring for unwanted babies and raising unwanted children. The RHB is also about being able to end unwanted pregnancies that are the result of their drunken husbands lust. It is also about so many wonderful goals to help women become more fulfilled human beings.

But the bill will result in the killing of human embryos, the killing funded by government and made possible by government fiat, as ordered by the RH law (if, God forbid, the RHB gets passed and enacted.) This will surely happen because the law would command that medicines in pill and other forms, and various means and tools, to prevent pregnancies be made freely available for anyone who has the money to buy them and for the government to give these gratis to indigent women. 

The reason human embryos will surely be killed is that these contraceptive pills have been scientifically proved to be destructive of them. They do not prevent pregnancies by preventing the fertilization of the female egg by the male sperm. What they do is snuff the life of the fertilized ovum, which is the beginning of a human being, the early embryo, the first stages of the baby, by poisoning it. Then, in case the embryo is not terminated by poisoning, the contraceptive medicines’ next effect is to coat the uterine wall with a toxic substance to keep the embryo from clinging to the wall of the mother’s uterus. 

Killing tiny babies in the womb

The tiny baby, which some people would rather think about as just cells and a blob of blood, and not the human life that it is, must attach herself or himself to the uterine wall to go on living. This attachment is the way the tiny baby can get sustenance from the mother and grow an umbilical cord through which the mother’s blood containing life-giving substances flows to make the baby grow. 

Opponents of the RHB have asked the proponents to make a list of contraceptive medicines that do not kill the fertilized embryo. They cannot supply a list. They say it is not the job of the law and the government to determine that scientific fact. It should be left to the pharmaceutical companies and the pharmacists dispensing the medicines to determine which contraceptives do what. 

That reply is irresponsible. Why pass a law that will cause the death of babies?

Now killing babies, even in embryo form, is a crime. It is a crime NOT because the Catholic Church and other religions say so. It is a crime because the Philippine Constitution says human life begins at the moment of conception and it is the duty of the Philippine state to protect and nourish human beings from the time of their conception to the time of their natural death.

Therefore, the Philippine government would be committing genocide against Filipinos if the RHB is enacted. Doctors who prescribe contraceptive pills that kill and the pharmacists who sell them, the government nurse and public health officer and caregiver who are ordered by the law to distribute the abortion-causing contraceptive pills, will become murderers of little babies in the womb.

Most members of Congress in both houses understand this. That is why the RHB has not been passed despite years of campaigning by Filipino population control and pro-choice activists supported by the foreigners who bankroll them.

Responsible Parenthood is not the same as RHB 

The President in his last SONA said nothing about supporting the passage of the Reproductive Health Bill. What he mentioned was “Responsible Parenthood.” He said: “Sa taon din pong ito, masisimot na rin ang 61.7 million na backlog sa textbook upang maabot na, sa wakas, ang one is to one ratio ng aklat sa mag-aaral. [This very year, we will wipe out the 61.7 million backlog in textbooks so that we will achieve the one to one ratio of books to students.] [Applause] Sana nga po, ngayong paubos na ang backlog sa edukasyon, sikapin nating huwag uling magka-backlog dahil sa dami ng estudyante. Sa tingin ko po, Responsible Parenthood ang sagot dito. [May it be, now that the backlog in education is about to end, that we strive not to face backlogs again because of the number of students. In my view, Responsible Parenthood is the answer. [Applause]”

Obviously, the President is asking Filipinos to do birth control and family planning. But he never said anything about genocidal artificial family planning methods proposed in the RHB. How can he endorse artificial birth control pills that not only cause abortions but also cause cancers on the women who use them?

RHB proponents have declared that they are not fighting the Catholic Church. They are saying that because a Catholic bishop has understood President Aquino’s mention of “Responsible Parenthood” in his SONA as the President’s and the RHB proponents’ “declaration of war” against the Church.

The RHB activists may not be waging war against the Church—only its values and moral teachings. But they are fighting common sense, scientific knowledge of what these abortifacient medicines do and the Constitution.


Monday, July 30, 2012

Archbishop Jose Palma: "There is an ill portent for the nation when government does not look at its own population as a source of grace and blessing."


Every birth is a gift from God; every new life, a blessing; every birth a cause for rejoicing and praising God who creates new life only out of love.

Our country’s positive birth rate and a population composed of mostly young people are the main players that fuel the economy. A fact that even the government itself acknowledges as it is determined to feed, educate and keep the young people healthy.

And rightly so, for even our Constitution acknowledges that human resource is a primary social and economic force.

Earlier this year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported that the hard earned salaries of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) that were sent to their families for the first 11 months last year amounted to $18.3 billion, which is a 7.3 percent increase in the same period in 2010.

Filipino men and women who endure the travails of working on foreign soil play a significant role in propping up our economy.

The country’s robust population is a big boost to our economy, according to former US President Bill Clinton, local and international financial institutions and the public sector.

It is therefore quite disturbing when the country is told that having too many school children is a burden to the national budget.

Can we have enough of schooled, skilled, diligent and highly driven young people who are a driving force of economic progress?

The draconian population control policy of the Reproductive Health (RH) Bill would only curtail our economic growth. The problem of countries with former robust economies is the lack of young workers for their industries and inadequate support for their aging population.

The issue on maternal deaths is a serious concern. The solution does not lie in suppressing births as provided in the RH Bill.

Providing proper and adequate maternal care could be done without passing the RH bill, but by strengthening and improving access to existing medical services.

There is an ill portent for the nation when government does not look at its own population as a source of grace and blessing.

There is a grave reason to worry when government would rather suppress population through an RH bill instead of confronting the real causes of poverty.



+ JOSE S. PALMA, DD

Archbishop of Cebu

President, Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines


Statement on RH Bill - Bishop Palma

Bernardo Villegas: Vote No to RH Bill!

Vote No to RH Bill (Bernardo M Villegas PhD)

Saturday, July 21, 2012

For the record: Fr. Gregory Gaston on World Population Collapse

World Population Collapse: Lessons for the Philippines

Gregory D. Gaston 
Reproduced with Permission 

A hundred countries today face increasing economic, socio-cultural, political and security problems while their populations age and start to decline, a result of Total Fertility Rates (TFR´s) falling below replacement levels since the 1960´s. As their population pyramid gradually becomes inverted, their ageing workforce, which foresees little replacement, needs to support a growing number of elderly. To resolve these difficulties, their governments desperately encourage their citizens to raise more children. If ever they succeed, their few working people in the future will be doubly burdened, as they must support not only the many elderly they already have, but also the many children they wish to have.

All this the Philippines will also have to experience after its fertility rate sinks to levels below replacement by 2025, brought about by today´s general trend of parents bearing less children, coupled with increasing emigration of individuals and families. It would be pointless to abandon the normal population pyramid we still have today, and then, like rich countries at present, wish to regain it by all means.

A serious study of the latest world demographic data will reject population control as a quick-fix solution to poverty in the Philippines, and hopefully encourage efforts towards good governance, both in the public and the private sectors: steps that will allow the Philippines to take full advantage of its rich human resources, which it can share to ageing countries desperately in need of them. 


(CLICK HERE TO READ MORE)

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Former Chief Justice Hilario Davide: "Even with rising population, this is no problem in my view"

The US Catholic magazine National Catholic Register published an interview (conducted by Brian Caulfield) with Hilario Davide on July 2. Davide was Chief Justice of the Philippines from November 30, 1998 to December 20, 2005. The last 3 exchanges in the interview are very relevant to the topics covered by this blog:



The Philippines stands out as the only nation, besides the Vatican, to prohibit divorce.

Our constitution prohibits divorce and abortion. We are anti-divorce, anti-abortion; we are pro-life, pro-family and pro-marriage under the constitution. The right to life of the unborn from the moment of conception is in the Bill of Rights. But, unfortunately, at one time, the Philippine legislature enacted a bill providing for the implementation of the death penalty for some heinous crimes; but it was repealed much later because it reflected badly on the Philippines, especially among the Catholics.

Has your Catholic faith guided your public service?


I would attribute what I have accomplished to my Catholic faith. I have full confidence in the providence of God. We are told by Jesus how to love our neighbors, and we have to do unto others as we would have them do unto us. It is only by the grace of God that you can say that your life has been fulfilled. Even in our family, our children and our grandchildren are brought up being taught how to pursue this life of faith and service to others.
What do you see as the future of the Philippines, which is often called poor and overpopulated?


I am very hopeful for the Philippines and her people. In a recent survey by the University of Chicago, it was demonstrated that, of all the peoples of the world, the Philippines has the greatest level of belief in God. The people’s faith in divine Providence has sustained them, in time of calamity, in time of adversity. So you can see the Filipino people as the most “smiling” in the world. … Even with rising population, this is no problem in my view. We will have more workers, more people and families to work for the greater glory of God.


Thursday, June 21, 2012

The sweet spot


Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer (mirabile visu!)

THINKING GLOBAL
By: Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas
June 15th, 2012


Thanks to Governor Amando Tetangco of the Central Bank, the man in the street has now been enlightened about a phrase that used to be limited to specialists in demographics and economic development. Referring to a “sweet spot” that the Philippine population is entering in the next 10 to 20 years, he expressed optimism about the prospects of higher growth for the Philippine economy because of the advantages of a young population both from the standpoints of abundant manpower supply and a large domestic market for goods and services. This sweet spot is made possible by what demographers call the demographic dividend, which is the benefit conferred on a country by a young labor force that is still growing faster than the retired force and the dependent children (those below 15 years of age).  This phrase was coined by Harvard demographer David Bloom. It was first applied to the favorable circumstances faced by such countries as Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea in the second half of the last century when these “tiger economies” grew at record levels of 10 to 12 percent for more than 20 years, catapulting their respective economies to First World status in just one generation.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Challenging the birth control mentality

Changing World 
By DR. BERNARDO M. VILLEGAS 
May 17, 2012 


MANILA, Philippines — The birth control mentality deeply encrusted in the controversial RH Bill is increasingly out of synch with numerous pronouncements of international economists, business strategists, and foreign investors who are heaping praises on the Philippines for having a large, young, and growing population. The alarming voices from population control advocates, who used to categorically state that the Philippine population has already breached the 100-million mark, have been at least temporarily silenced by the revelation that the 2010 Census of Population and Housing by the National Statistics Office (NSO) placed the 2010 population at only 92.34 million, with the growth rate slowing down to an annual average of 1.9% during the 2000-2010 period from 2.34% in 1990-2000. Neomalthusians should be relieved that the Philippine population will not double in the next 30 years and will plateau at about 145 to 150 million some time before the middle of the present century. Given the high probability that Philippine GDP can grow at an average of 7% to 9% during the next 20 years, a population of some 150 million, mostly young Filipinos and Filipinas, will be a great advantage in a global village of predominantly aging countries in the developed world, including our Northeast Asian neighbors such as Japan, South Korea, and China. At 150 million people by mid-century the Philippines will have the population density of resource-poor but highly developed South Korea today.

Where did the money come from? And more on population control.

From Valeriano "Bobit" Avila's column on May 21, 2012, titled Will NEDA now push for the RH bill?


There is no doubt that just like the Senate Impeachment trial of Chief Justice Renato Corona, PNoy has literally used all the instrumentalities of the Philippine government in order to pin down CJ Corona… even with lies and innuendoes. I can only second-guess that the same thing is happening in his pushing for the RH bill.

A case in point is the report by newly-appointed Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan (last week, he took over from NEDA Sec. Cayetano Paderanga who quit due to health reasons) who got his marching orders from the President to fast track the Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects, which after almost two years as President has failed to take off. But his other Presidential order is to support the RH bill. Come now…will NEDA and the Regional Development Council Region 7 be pushing for the RH bill?

For sure, Sec. Balisacan is getting international help in promoting the RH bill, when the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reported that their Philippine Office raised US28.5 Million in one year and that this money will be used to promote reproductive and maternal health, one of the country’s Millennium Development Goals.

My question is… where did that US$28.5 Million come from? Are they the foreign lobby money for the RH bill that has been used to pay for expensive one-page advertisements by leftist students organizations purportedly supporting the RH bill? Let’s see if the Aquino regime will show some kind of transparency and tell the Filipino people where the money to support the RH bill came from.

As the nation’s top economist, Sec. Balisacan ought to listen to Singapore’s Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew who, as we already wrote that last May 7, came up with an article entitled “Warning Bell for Developed Countries: Declining Birth Rates” that came out in Forbes Magazine.

Lee Kuan Yew said, “There will be a shift in power unless birth rates increase in the developed world.” The old world thinking that fewer people mean a better economy is already passé’. Sec. Balisacan should be advised that his economic policies should look further after the Aquino government where they boasted that the economy would be much better. But then if we cut down our population, then please don’t expect a rosy future ahead for our country, thanks to PNoy’s RH bill that he will pass very soon.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Even without an RH Bill, the Philippines' population growth rate is still declining

SHOOTING STRAIGHT
Valeriano Avila 

The BusinessWorld’s Monday edition headline entitled “Population Count at P92.34M” is something that we’ve already known and written intensely. Allow me to quote the opening statement of that article, “The country’s population ballooned to 92.34 million in 2010 even as the pace of growth has slowed, latest official estimates show.” This is what we’ve been harping about in the last two years under the Aquino Regime that continues to insist that we need a Reproductive Health (RH) Bill to cull our purportedly “runaway” population growth.

This was the report that came from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing by the National Statistics Office (NSO) which proves that our annual population growth rate is only 1.9% when it should be at least 2.1%. This means our population is now declining, to think we don’t even have an RH Bill yet, as it is still being debated in the Congress floor. We have already more than emphasized that when populations go on a decline, it will take at least 3 or 4 generations before the decline can be arrested.

Our best example to date is Japan, whose population peaked after World War II, but then because of the remarkable economic growth that Japan experienced after the war, her population started to decline in the last 60 years. Today, so many kindergarten schools have shut down. Middle or high school campuses are almost empty and there are more old people walking the streets than young people.

By the time the Japanese government realized their serious mistake, it was already too late for them. Just a couple of years ago, at least two major Japanese multinational companies urged their employees to go home early and make babies. I don’t know if that program had an effect on Japan’s economic growth. Another country is Singapore, which, due to their being a small country, had no choice but to build high rise tenement housing for their people. Thus, with limited room, they could ill-afford to have more children because of their cramp spaces.

Now, Singapore is trying to attract an expat population so they could hire the best and the brightest from other nations. Without this, Singapore’s economy would ground to a halt. We are so blessed here in the Philippines because we have a robust population growth. Look at all the nations experiencing a robust economic growth in these times… China, India. I rest my case.

Without a doubt, the Philippines does not need an RH Bill. If there is anything that we direly need, it is to stop the imbalance in our money or wealth distribution. The rich continues to thrive, while the poor remains in that vicious cycle of poverty with no prospect of getting out of it. If the lot of the poor in our society can be elevated to become the middle class, it would mean a balanced distribution of wealth.

There’s a book entitled “Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty” written by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, which syndicated columnist Thomas Friedman wrote about recently. I already ordered this book in FullyBook as I don’t want to get it in e-books. Anyway, the present system of governance in this country, where the ruling political and business elite have all but excluded the poor from our nation’s development, only tells you what we’ve been saying all along… we need a total overhaul of our current centralized system. If we don’t, someday Myanmar will overtake us and this is a reality we could face in the future.

Meanwhile, there’s that phenomenon whereby so many people living in the rural areas are migrating to live in urban centers. This is something that the Philippine government ought to look into. Manila based commentators insist that we are overpopulated because, like what the last Census has shown, the CALABARZON area is now the most populous with 12.61 million people living in the outskirts of Metro Manila, which is has become the second placer with 11.86 million people. Cebu with 2.62 million is not bad.

Once more we appeal to our readers, especially those Catholics whose hearts are close to our Lord Jesus Christ to come out in the open and help expose this despicable crime that would fall upon our nation under the guise of being a health program to protect women, when the reality is, the RH Bill is merely aimed to legalize the killing of the unborn.

Incidentally, I was at the drugstore the other day getting my prescription medicines and saw condoms, which you could buy over the counter in all drugstores. So if condoms are freely available (not only in drugstores but even in convenience stores), why is there a need to legislate this? Clearly the aim is to let corporations pay for the condoms or other contraceptive needs of its employees… something that unfortunately even the Cebu Chamber of Commerce, Inc. (CCCI) are totally unaware of.

Who's scared of 92.3 M Filipinos?

The following was published on the website of Business Mirror on April 17, 2012:

Mercedes B. Suleik 

“92.3 MILLION AND GROWING!” screamed the headline of one broadsheet. This was followed by the sub-headline “100 million Filipinos by 2015” which would simply scare the heebie-jeebies out of anyone. And of course, seized upon by the proponents of the RH Bill, as a great way of pushing their agenda forward—how are all those mouths going to be fed?

Once again one of oldest myths of economic literature which continue to belabour the consequences of population on the pace and process of economic growth is being rehashed. The Malthusian proposition of 1798 has become some kind of dogma to population junkies. Proponents of this doctrine have sanitized it to look like an innocuous, reasonable proposal to promote economic development. Poor countries, let’s be honest and say, the Philippines, has been the target of this campaign to “manage population” as a national policy.

Expanded elaborations of the Malthusian theme raised the bogey of difficulties of feeding expanding populations and of pressures on capital formation – assessments we might say were mostly concerned with short-run, direct impacts and downplayed indirect and longer-run effects that would likely occur due to price responses, institutional changes, and certainly technological innovations that poor old Malthus never imagined would ever come to pass. As a matter of fact, well-known economist Simon Kuznets, basing his conclusion on longer-run assessments, found that based on simple correlations, a net negative impact of population growth on per capita output was not obvious in the data. Indeed, a number of findings highlighting both the productivity of human capital and the importance of technical change put into question the highly pessimistic Malthusian underpinnings of the population bomb theories.

Now comes an even more positive window of opportunity in the development of society and a nation—studies that show a demographic dividend that countries such as our may exploit, by laying down appropriate policies that would make possible faster rates of economic growth and human development as fertility rates decline.

In the case of the Philippines, its population has increased at the average rate of 1.9 percent annually for the period 2000-2010 (in contrast to the lie that has been fed to our legislators and RH advocates – 1.9 percent versus the touted 2.3 percent, happily endorsed by USAID and UN-MDG people who have dangled the carrot of development with the stick of birth control—even non-statisticians can see the huge difference!

What is this demographic dividend? Simply stated, the demographic dividend occurs when a falling birth rate changes the age distribution so that fewer investments are needed to meet the needs of the youngest age groups and resources are released for investment in economic development and family welfare. A falling birth rate makes for a smaller population at young, dependent ages and for relatively more people in the adult age groups – who comprise the productive labor force. It improves the ratio of productive workers to child dependents in the population, allowing for faster economic growth and fewer burdens on families.

It may be mentioned that the effect of this drop in fertility rates is not immediate. There is a lag that produces a generational population bulge that for a time exerts a burden on society and increases the dependency ratio. Eventually this dependent group will reach the productive labor force, and the dependency ratio will decline dramatically, leading to the so-called demographic dividend. This is the time when effective policies can facilitate more rapid economic growth, putting less strain on families. During the course of the demographic dividend, four mechanisms that will benefit society may be delivered through increased labor supply; increase in savings; human capital; and increased domestic demand.

Indeed, no less than BSP Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr. stated that the country’s large population of young workers with purchasing power provides the economy with the demographic dividends that are good for consumption and investments. This period in an economy’s history where more people or a prominent portion of the population is of working age results in greater purchasing power which can drive consumption, savings, and investment. He said that our average age is 22.2 years, with nearly half a million graduates entering the labor force each year, providing companies with a large pool of manpower to fill their requirements. By 2015, Tetangco said, we will reach that demographic sweet spot.

Our country should take advantage of the opportunity to enhance the key features of the economic life cycle. The productivity of young people depends not just on the availability of jobs but on their capacity to take up employment opportunities, i.e., education. As an aside, it has also been mentioned that there is a “second demographic dividend” which relates to a large proportion of older working age people who face longer periods of retirement, accumulate assets, and contribute to the economy’s consumption, savings, and investment. May I appeal to the one-track minded anti-life advocates to sit up straight and think through the benefits of the demographic dividend that we have been blessed with – and by the way, this dividend period, according to Wikipedia, is neither automatic or permanent and would last approximately five decades. So we better not muff it!

Friday, March 30, 2012

Central Bank Governor: "Population would be a source of economic growth"

Not directly about the RH Bill, but truly relevant to the debates about it:

From Manila Standard:

28 March, 2012 

A large pool of young workers will support economic growth in the next few years, Bangko Sentral Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said Wednesday.

Tetangco said in a speech before the Philippine Investment Forum the country’s large population of young workers with purchasing power provides the economy with the so-called demographic dividends that are good for consumption and investments.

He said the Philippines would enter the demographic sweet spot by 2015. “Population would be a source of economic growth,” he said, adding that the concept of demographic dividends has been proven historically.

“That concept, the demographic window, is that period in an economy’s history where more people or a prominent portion of the population is of working age. That means these people have the purchasing power, purchasing capacity, which can drive consumption, investment and therefore faster economy,” said Tetangco.

“Our average age is 22.2 years. So by 2015, we’ll reach that window. We’ve seen the experience of other countries — Thailand and Indonesia—in the region that have benefited from these demographic dividends,” said Tetangco.

He said the Philippines would be the last major economy in Asia to enter the so-called demographic sweet spot. “If you’re an investor and you’re looking at the potential of an economy in terms of the size of the market, they will consider these demographic window that the Philippines is about to enter,” said Tetangco.

Tetangco noted that nearly half a million graduates enter the labor force each year, providing companies with a big pool of manpower to fill their requirements.

“If the economy is growing, underlying that growth would be the increase of employment as well. So as you grow, you can generate more employment and therefore you can have more people employed who are able to spend and help fuel growth in the economy,” said Tetangco.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

For the record: Anthony Perez on the Overpopulation Myth

Anthony Perez is one of the founders and leading officers of Filipinos for Life. He penned the following essay for the "Definitely Filipino" website more than a year ago, but I've neglected to post it on this blog until now. Mea culpa. CAP.

From Definitely Filipino:

Anthony Perez

Yesterday I watched with dismay a video of politicians and known personalities being very vocal about their support for the RH bill. That quote made famous by Professor Charles Xavier came into my mind: “Man fears what he does not understand.”

Amidst this demagogue and clamor for the passage of this bill lies the silent truth: that everything in this bill is based on lies. I intend to shed some light on one particular lie – that the world is overpopulated.

To help us understand better what is at stake here, let us look at the facts.

The origin of the RH bill isn’t even local; it comes from foreign agencies that want to push their own agenda on developing countries like ours. In April of 1974, Henry Kissinger released the NSSM 200 or National Security Study Memo 200 which says that the population growth in the least developed countries or LDCs (the Philippines included) is a threat to the United States’ security and interests. Thus the study promoted population control measures like contraception and education towards the ‘contraceptive’ mentality. This ‘education’ also meant that everyone should be made to believe that the planet is getting more and more crowded and the resources are running out. I shall comment on this later on.

Overpopulation is a concoction of contraceptive pushers and abortion pushers who have banded together in a conglomerate called International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF). These are owners of multinational corporations which manufacture infant formulas, contraceptives, condoms, IUDs, sterilization and abortion gadgets like suction machines. They are the same people who control international money lending institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the Frankfurt-based Development Loan Corporation and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

NSSM 200 says that the population of the world has increased dramatically from 1950′s onwards, an increase never before seen in human history. This is true, but it was not the result of too many babies… it was the result of better healthcare. More children live beyond their fifth birthdays and fewer women die in childbirth. Sadly, the population scaremongers made it look like the world’s population was expanding simply due to the number of children being born.

But is there enough food and resources to go around? The answer is yes. Food production has been on the rise despite the growing population, and this rise can be attributed to technology. We now have the technology to produce food enough to feed everyone. But why is there still hunger? Attribute that to graft and corruption. Attribute that to lack of opportunities and arable land in some places of the world. The rich countries, on the other hand, have more than enough food to spare. Better yet, they own the technology that enables them to produce food to sustain them.

It is easy to believe that as we grow in numbers, there wouldn’t be enough space and food to go around, and it sounds logical right? Along those lines is the belief that population growth is the primary reason for poverty.

The culprit behind this thinking was Robert Malthus, who said that as the population grows geometrically, production grows arithmetically, therefore resulting in poverty. However, almost 200 years later, Professor Simon Kuznets proved that Malthus was wrong, and said that economic growth is fastest during the time that the population growth was highest. This was validated in Europe during the 100 years industrialization of the European continent. For his efforts in disproving the fallacy, Kuznets was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1971.

And yet our lawmakers (read: lawbreakers) continue the education (read: idiotcation) and brainwashing of the masses that they with their 8 or 9 children are the reason behind the poverty of our country. They disregard facts and still cling to the fallacious Malthusian principle.

If we are so many, then why are we still poor?

The natural and expected result in the equation however did not happen in the Philippines, because purchasing power was removed from the population that grew. People could not buy because they had no money; and they had no money because they had no jobs or income earnings. The earnings that could easily have gone on to the people through industry were siphoned off by payments to a ballooning international and domestic debt, by tremendous tax cuts and tax holidays being given to foreign investments prejudicial to the internal economic growth of the country and most of all by the shameful and rampant corruption in the government. Instead of the people earning, it is the government official and a select few who were making all the money – and can afford to have a $20,000 dinner while the country is hungry.

Is the earth getting more and more crowded? According to basic calculations by area, all six billion people on the earth today would fit within the state of Texas, with each family having a house with a little yard. So, it is not a question of area. The problem is the growing concentration of large numbers of people in certain cities, caused by the deterioration and lack of opportunities in the rural areas.

Today, the world faces a demographic winter with an ageing population (which means the median age of a country is rising). Population control has its good and bad effects – on the good side, it will create a temporary economic bonanza. This is happening to Europe, Japan and Singapore. On the other hand, they have to face the music after that economic boom: with an ageing population that has bred so few children, the burden of having to pay for social security lies on the few, and there is also the question of manpower availability. Fact is that many of these European and Asian countries are now giving incentives to those who can bear 3 or more children. They have realized their folly a little too late.

Does this RH bill support abortion? Not directly. Of course if it blatantly said that the bill does support abortion, it would be shot down faster than you can say “women’s rights”. But it is an open secret that to offer reproductive health care in the name of women’s rights and more importantly, population control, means that abortion is a necessary option as well. Not convinced? Let’s take it directly from NSSM 200:

“No country has reduced its population growth without resorting to abortion.” (http://www.population-security.org/28-APP2B.html#IV-B-1-a)

I can go on with this until this note reaches part nth. I will do whatever it takes to stop this bill from being passed and to honor life from conception. But I guess i would have to end it here, as I really do not want to bore you any further.

I was thinking of a particular quote to end this trilogy with a bang, but can’t think of any. In the end, I thought of quoting from the very first book of the bible, when God told man when He first created him, to “be fruitful and multiply.” It’s strange, but if overpopulation were true, God would have been been a very poor engineer not having the foresight that the world will become overpopulated one day. God gave us this command in order to RESPONSIBLY bear children that will be our joy and comfort when we grow old. Let us embrace life, my friends. It is good to be alive – let us share this with our children and our family.

P.S.

If the rest of the world is growing old, and with our migratory ways and low median age at 23, it isn’t far-fetched that the Filipinos will truly fill the earth and be great as a nation. This is our chance for greatness my friends!